Social Attitude at the Beginning of the Campaign
The forthcoming elections for European Parliament are entirely marked by the Bulgarian parliamentary elections succeeding them, show the data of Alpha Research Polling Agency. This peculiarity of the Bulgarian EU elections makes an impact in three main areas:
- Expected slightly higher (up to 35%) voter turnout than in the other European countries
- The almost absolute absence from the debates of specific European topics and the focus of the campaign on the juxtaposition “ruling parties – opposition”
- An attempt for a maximum mobilization of the core supporters of the parties as well as their closer peripheries, in order to obtain better starting positions for the National Elections
Support for Bulgaria’s membership in the EU
Two years after Bulgaria’s accession to the EU, Bulgarians continue to support the membership as the only admissible alternative for the future development of the country. 49% have positive attitudes, 37% - neutral, and 14% - negative. The strongest supporters of the membership are the residents of the capital, the freelancers, the state employees, the students, and the people with higher income. The most critical are the retired, the farmers, and the people with lower education and lower income.
Despite the predominantly positive attitudes towards the EU, three-forths of Bulgarians do not perceive themselves as having benefited from the EU membership. The lower living standard, the abuse of EU funds, the poor quality of the infrastructure and the public services are the strongest factors which fuel the disappointment of the respondents.
Level of trust in the European institutions
Bulgarians’ skepticism regarding the influence of the European membership on the economy and their everyday lives is largely due to the inefficiency of the national institutions in applying European standards, norms, and regulations. As a result, Bulgarians invest their hopes in the European institutions, which enjoy significantly higher levels of trust than the national ones. The European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg is approved by 46% (versus the Bulgarian Court – approved by 6%). The European Parliament enjoys an approval rate of 31% (versus 7% for the Bulgarian Parliament), and the European Commission – 29% versus 10% for the Bulgarian Government. The Bulgarian European Commissioner Meglena Kuneva has an approval rate of 35% which ranks her third in popularity among the national leaders.
Interest in the elections for European Parliament
The majority of Bulgarians feel too disinformed and too distant from the European political life. They are not aware of the jurisdiction, the competences, and the decision-making process of the European Parliament, the European Commission and the Council of Ministers. Thus, regardless of their higher level of trust in the European institutions, Bulgarians do not perceive the elections as directly affecting their daily lives. Only 22% state the elections for European MPs are very important. For the rest, about 80% of the people, these elections are more or less unimportant.
Surveys show an interesting paradox. The European elections are the least important precisely to the most mobilized voters – the supporters of the MRF, BSP, and RZS. Once again this comes to show that the participation in the Eurovote will rather be a result from the level of party mobilization than the level of interest in the European politics.
Electoral attitudes
Based on 38% of the Bulgarian citizens, who have declared that they will participate in the European elections in Alpha Research’s latest survey (conducted in the period May 13-19 2009) the temporary ranking of the parties, with largest chance to have MEPs is the following: GERB – 33%, Coalition for Bulgaria (BSP) – 24.5%, MRF – 12%, Ataka – 10%, Blue coalition – 5.2%. Theoretical chances for presence in the European Parliament also have NMSS, which has been enlarging its electoral support over the past weeks and Iane Ianev’s OLJ. For the moment the vote intentions translates into 5 secure mandates for GERB, 4 for Coalition for Bulgaria, 3 for MRF and 2 for Ataka. The other 3 mandates could be either distributed among the Blue coalition, NMSS, and OLJ or go towards one of the larger three parties, should the electoral mobilization of the smaller parties turn out to be insufficient to receive a mandate. The lower voter turnout will narrow the positions of the first four parties. It could even change their places in the rank list. On the contrary, a higher turnover would enlarge the spectrum of Bulgarian parties represented in the European Parliament.
Legend:
GERB – Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria
Coalition for Bulgaria - alliance in Bulgaria, led by the Bulgarian Socialist Party
MRF – Movement for Rights and Freedom
Ataka
Blue Coalition - Coalition between UDF (Union of Democratic Forces) and DSB (Democrats for Strong Bulgaria)
RZS - Order, Law, Justice
NMSS – National Movement “Simeon II”
NAPRED-VMRO - Coalition between IMRO (Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization) , Agrarian Union and Gergyovden
Bulgarian Greens
BSDP - Bulgarian Social Democrats
LIDER
BND - Bulgarian New Democracy
